We have been seeing a “shift” in our local real estate market.  In the past few weeks I have seen 8-10 foreclosures in just the Lake Oswego real estate market.  This is unusual in that our economy is doing great and I have not seen this many foreclosures to speak of since our last recession.  Is this a sign of things to come for our local real estate market or are lenders releasing some of their recession inventory?

LAKE OSWEGO REAL ESTATE AND THE DREADED “R” WORD

Since I am not an economist, I don’t know the answer to that, but I will be watching our local market.https://lakeoswegorealestateblog.wordpress.com/

Here are some other things I have seen:

  • Inventory has increased, the highest in 3 years this spring and price appreciation is down to single digits except for the Gresham/Troutdale and Mt Hood areas. In my next newsletter, once our stats for the first half of 2018 from RMLS will be published, I will then post what the appreciation rates have been for the first half of this year.
  • Listings are taking longer to sell and in many cases it is now taking a few weeks to get offers vs the few days we had been seeing.
  • When the renters’ law passed in the City of Portland, many saw a slow-down in sales. The uncertainty of rates, massive growth in a few years and still unknowns on multifamily design standards have created a lull.
  • However, for the most part the rise in interest rates has not really affected our local real estate market (at least not yet).
  • Portland area’s home prices climbed slower than the rest of the nation for the first time since 2012.https://lakeoswegorealestateblog.wordpress.com/

We are still in a sellers’ real estate market.  Prices as I have said many times, will continue to increase due to our low inventory.  However, there will be a point in time when buyers will get maxed out. The cyclical laws of boom and bust demand will eventually end.

But the real question – as the Portland metro areas continue to deal with a population boom, a housing-affordability crisis and historically high increases in rents – is when will that happen? “I couldn’t even begin to tell you that,” said Tim Duy, an economics professor at the University of Oregon. “There’s no fundamental law that says it has to end anytime soon

As a Real Estate Broker, part of my job is to keep informed of not just our local Portland metro real estate markets but also what is happening nationally.  For a while now the dreaded “R” word has been creeping up in news articles-namely “R” as in Recession. However, economists weren’t right about the last one and as of now, I am still not worried about the next one.  I have been selling real estate now through the last 5-6 recessions here in our local Portland real estate market. I am not an alarmist, nor am I a pessimist.  What I am is a “realist”. Further, a recession does not mean there will be a housing crisis.

According to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, a recession is defined as follows: “A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.” A recession means the economy has slowed down markedly. It does not mean we will be experiencing another housing crisis. Obviously, the housing crash of 2008 caused the last recession. However, during the previous five recessions home values appreciated.

Experts have recently weighed in and said that the top three probable triggers for the next recession are:

  • Monetary policy
  • Trade policy
  • A stock market correction

A housing market correction was ranked ninth in probability. Those same experts also projected that home values would continue to appreciate in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. Others agree that housing will not be impacted like it was a decade ago. Mark Fleming, First American’s Chief Economist, explained:

“If a recession is to occur, it is unlikely to be caused by housing-related activity, and therefore the housing sector should be one of the leading sources to come out of the recession.”

And recently, U.S. News and World Report agreed: “Fortunately – and hopefully – the history of recessions and current issues that could harm the economy don’t lead many to believe the housing market crash will repeat itself in an upcoming decline.”

Bottom Line according to economists is that a recession is probably less than two years away. A housing crisis is not.

Thinking of Selling Your Lake Oswego Home?

Prices are still increasing in Lake Oswego. Interest rates are also increasing but are still low and there is a huge pool of buyer demand. I have ready, willing and able buyers ready to purchase your home. If you want to know the value of your home in today’s real estate market, please call me at 503-804-9685.

SEARCH FOR REAL ESTATE

There are links above to search for real estate.  I have a new website where you can search or you can use my mobile phone app as well. My website and mobile app provide you with access to all listings available on the RMLS™ system regardless of who the listing agent or brokerage may be. Listings are updated frequently throughout the day giving you the information you need, when you need it.

Moving to Lake Oswego?

Want to know more about Lake Oswego? I’d love to be your buyer’s agent, please give me a call at 503-804-9685.

I have worked in Lake Oswego as a Real Estate Broker since 1978 and have lived in Lake Oswego since 1988 and know all the neighborhoods! The real estate market is “hot” here in the Portland metro area and Lake Oswego. I am ready to assist you with all your real estate needs! “There is no substitute for experience.”

ALL ABOUT…..Lake Oswego Real Estate. Copyright 2008-2018. Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of Federal copyright laws.

 

Advertisements